PolySouq prediction markets

PolySouq Prediction Markets: Trade Bitcoin, Gold, EUR/USD and Football as Probabilities

How PolySouq works: probability prices from 0 to 100, buy-only YES/NO positions, 5-minute Bitcoin windows, gold, EUR/USD and six football leagues, the parimutuel payout in dollars, USDC from $5.

PolySouq cover: trade Bitcoin, gold and football as probabilities, with an illustrative Bitcoin Up/Down card

At a glance

PolySouq is a prediction market: every question about the future is priced as a probability from 0 to 100, and you buy the answer you believe in. It lists Bitcoin and Ethereum Up/Down windows every 5 minutes, gold, oil, EUR/USD, USD/JPY and silver windows, match-winner markets across six football leagues, and multi-outcome events on politics, economics and technology. Positions are buy-only and held to settlement; the payout is parimutuel, with a 10% commission taken only from the losing side. Funding is USDC on the Polygon network from $5. You can lose the full amount you stake.

Price = probability: a YES at 64 means the market puts a 64% chance on that outcome
Markets: Bitcoin and Ethereum every 5 minutes (also 4-hour, daily, weekly, monthly), gold, oil, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, silver, six football leagues, politics, economics and technology
Payout: correct answers split the money staked on incorrect answers, minus a 10% commission on the losing pot only; no spread, no leverage, no deposit or monthly fee
Risk: the most you can lose is what you stake; if nobody backed a losing answer, every stake is refunded in full
Funding: USDC on Polygon only, $5 minimum deposit and $5 minimum withdrawal, balances shown in $

What a prediction market is

A prediction market turns a question about the future into something you can trade. Each possible answer carries a probability price between 0 and 100. A YES priced at 64 means participants currently give the event a 64% chance; the NO side is priced at the remaining 36. When the event resolves, the correct answer is worth 100 and every other answer is worth 0.

On PolySouq you buy the answer you believe in: YES or NO on a two-sided question, or one of several answers on a multi-outcome event. The platform is buy-only, so a position is held until the event settles. Most catalogue events have three or more answers; the price windows on Bitcoin, gold or EUR/USD are simple Up/Down questions.

What you can trade on PolySouq

Three families: price windows on crypto, forex and commodities; football fixtures; and multi-outcome events on politics, economics and technology. Every price window asks one question: will the price at the end of the window be higher than at the start?

PolySouq markets at a glance

PolySouq markets at a glance
Market	Example	Window / type	Where to open it
Bitcoin	BTC Up or Down in the next 5 minutes	5-minute, 4-hour, daily, weekly, monthly	Bitcoin 5-minute windows
Ethereum	ETH Up or Down in the next 5 minutes	5-minute, 4-hour, daily, weekly, monthly	Same crypto section
EUR/USD	Pair higher at the end of the window?	Up/Down windows	Forex and commodity windows
USD/JPY	Pair higher at the end of the window?	Up/Down windows	Same forex section
Gold (XAUUSD)	Gold higher at the end of the window?	Up/Down windows	Same forex section
Oil (USOIL)	Crude higher at the end of the window?	Up/Down windows	Same forex section
Champions League	Match winner per fixture	Match-winner markets	Champions League
Premier League	Match winner per fixture	Match-winner markets	Premier League
La Liga	Match winner per fixture	Match-winner markets	La Liga
Ligue 1	Match winner per fixture	Match-winner markets	Ligue 1
Serie A	Match winner per fixture	Match-winner markets	Serie A
Bundesliga	Match winner per fixture	Match-winner markets	Bundesliga

How the payout works: a worked example

PolySouq settles every event parimutuel: the money staked on each answer sits in its own pot, and when the event resolves everyone who backed a correct answer splits all the money staked on incorrect answers, minus a 10% commission taken only from the losing side. No spread, no leverage, no deposit fee, no monthly fee. Your maximum loss is the amount you staked.

Suppose a market holds $600 on YES and $400 on NO, and YES wins. The losing pot is $400; the commission is 10% of it, $40; the remaining $360 goes to the YES side in proportion to each stake. A $100 YES stake is one sixth of the $600 pot, so it receives one sixth of $360, which is $60: that participant gets back $100 + $60 = $160. Every NO stake receives $0.

If nobody backed a losing answer, for instance because you were alone on the market, there is no losing pot and every stake is refunded in full. Voided markets are also refunded in full.

Worked example: $100 on YES, pools of $600 YES / $400 NO

Worked example: $100 on YES, pools of $600 YES / $400 NO
Line	Amount	How it is calculated
Losing pot (NO)	$400	Everything staked on NO
Commission	$40	10% of the losing pot only
Distributed to YES	$360	$400 − $40
Share for a $100 YES stake	$60	$100 ÷ $600 × $360
Returned to that wallet	$160	$100 stake + $60
If NO had won	−$100	Maximum loss = the stake
If nobody had backed NO	$100	Full refund, no losing pot

Prediction market vs leveraged trading

A prediction market and a leveraged trade can express the same view with a very different risk profile. The table compares what happens to your money.

PolySouq prediction market vs a typical leveraged trade

PolySouq prediction market vs a typical leveraged trade
Feature	PolySouq	Typical leveraged trading
Leverage	None	Typical, often high
Maximum loss	The amount you staked	Margin call; losses can exceed the initial margin
Costs	No spread; 10% commission on the losing pot only	Spread, commission and overnight swap
Holding period	Held to settlement	Any time
Funding	USDC on Polygon, from $5	Card or bank transfer

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Opening an account and funding it

An account takes an email address and password, or a Google or Apple sign-in, and the email must be verified before you can trade. Funding is by USDC on the Polygon network only, in and out, with a $5 minimum deposit and a $5 minimum withdrawal. Balances are shown in $. No cards, no bank transfers.

Step 1 — sign up with email and password, Google or Apple.
Step 2 — verify the email address from the message PolySouq sends.
Step 3 — pick the topics that interest you; the feed is built from them.
Step 4 — open Portfolio, choose Add funds and copy your personal USDC deposit address on Polygon.
Step 5 — send USDC over the Polygon network from any wallet or exchange that supports it; the $5 minimum applies to deposits and withdrawals.
Step 6 — choose an event, buy YES or NO (or one of the answers), enter the $ amount and confirm.
Ready to start? Open your PolySouq account and fund it with USDC from $5.

Friends, leaderboard and the Ideas feed

Every account has a personal invite link under Settings. Friends who join through it can be challenged on the same events on the friends page, so two people with opposite views on the next 5-minute Bitcoin window can put a number on it. If you are alone on a market and nobody takes the other side, your money comes back.

The weekly accuracy leaderboard ranks accounts by how often their predictions resolve correctly, not by how much they staked. The Ideas feed is where participants share their analysis, and every event carries its own comment thread.

Every resolved market shows its outcome and the source it was settled from: settlement is automated by consensus of public sources, with human review for unclear cases. PolySouq is operated by a Cyprus-registered company. Mike Brend, Chief Marketing Officer: “People already have a view on where gold or Bitcoin is heading. We give them a clean way to put a probability on it, with the risk capped at what they choose to stake.” The category is growing: Pew Research Center reported in May 2026 that combined monthly volume on Kalshi and Polymarket rose from under $5 billion in September 2025 to about $24 billion in April 2026.

Is PolySouq a betting site?

No, and the difference is structural. A bookmaker or sportsbook sets the odds, takes the other side of every bet and profits when you lose; gambling in that sense is a game against the operator. On PolySouq no operator takes the other side: prices are set by what other participants stake, the payout comes from the pool of incorrect answers, and the platform's revenue is a disclosed 10% commission on the losing pot only. When nobody backs the opposite answer there is no opponent, and every stake is refunded. It is a prediction market with a probability price, not a wager against the house — and it deserves the same discipline as any position that can lose its full stake.

Risk note

You can lose the full amount you stake on any PolySouq event. Prices are probabilities set by other participants, not forecasts, and a wrong prediction returns $0. Nothing in this guide is investment advice; stake only money you are prepared to lose.

Ready to get started?

Save up to US$2,500 a year

Get the signals free

1Open a Base Markets account through our link
2Deposit US$400 — the capital stays yours to trade
3Send your proof on Telegram and every signal is free

Open a Base Markets account

Rather just subscribe?

No broker account needed — subscribe through our Telegram bot and get every signal with a clear entry, take-profit and stop-loss, straight to your phone.

Subscribe on Telegram

Trading forex and CFDs carries a real risk of losing money. Our signals are general market analysis, not personal financial advice.

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Frequently asked questions

It means participants currently give the outcome a 64% chance, and the NO side is priced at 36. If YES is correct, the YES stakes split the losing pot after the 10% commission; if not, the YES stakes are lost. The price moves as people stake on either side.

No. There is no leverage and no margin, so the most you can lose on any event is the amount you staked on it. You can lose that full amount, though: a wrong answer is worth $0 at settlement. Treat every stake as money you are prepared to lose.

Every stake is refunded in full. The parimutuel payout distributes the losing pot to the correct side; when nobody backed a losing answer, because you were alone on the market or everyone was right, there is no losing pot to share. Voided markets are refunded in full in the same way.

No. PolySouq is buy-only: you buy YES, NO or one of the answers and hold it until the event resolves. Choose a window whose length matches your view, for example a 5-minute Bitcoin window for a very short-term read, and stake only what you are content to leave in place.

Deposits and withdrawals use USDC on the Polygon network only. Open Portfolio, choose Add funds, copy your personal deposit address and send USDC from any wallet or exchange that supports Polygon. The minimum deposit is $5 and the minimum withdrawal is $5. Balances are shown in $.

Automatically, by consensus of public sources, shortly after the event ends; unclear cases go to human review. Every resolved market shows its outcome and the source it was settled from, and payouts or refunds go straight to the account balance. Accuracy is tracked on the weekly leaderboard.

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Trading forex, CFDs and crypto carries a real risk of losing money and isn't suitable for everyone — our signals are analyst opinions and general information, not personal financial advice, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Last updated 5 September 2026