A signal you can't explain is a tip, not a strategy. This page documents exactly how the desk produces every alert — what has to line up before a signal goes out, the risk rules that are never waived, and the situations in which we deliberately do nothing.
Confluence first: technical and fundamental together
No signal is published on a single indicator. The desk requires confluence — independent factors pointing the same way — before an alert goes out.
On the technical side: trend structure on the higher timeframes, established support and resistance zones, momentum confirmation and the liquidity profile of the current session. On the fundamental side: the macro calendar, central-bank pricing and the prevailing risk sentiment across assets. A technically perfect setup that fights the macro backdrop is skipped; a strong macro story without a clean level to trade against is skipped too.
Risk rules on every signal
- A stop loss is fixed before publication — a signal without an invalidation level does not exist here
- Every signal carries at least one defined take-profit target; strong setups carry TP2/TP3 extensions
- We recommend risking 1–2% of your account per trade, never more
- No averaging into losing positions and no moving stops away from price
- Running trades receive management updates — break-even moves, partial closes, extended targets
When we don't trade
Standing aside is a position. The desk deliberately goes quiet in conditions where the edge disappears:
- The minutes around high-impact releases — NFP, CPI, FOMC and central-bank decisions (the big US prints land around 10.30pm–midnight Sydney time) — when spreads blow out and slippage is unpredictable
- Holiday and late-Friday liquidity, when thin books make levels unreliable
- Markets with unclear structure — if the chart requires imagination, there is no signal
Verification and publication
Every signal is timestamped on Telegram at the moment it is issued, with entry, take profit and stop loss already attached — outcomes are never claimed after the fact. Closed trades feed the weekly report, which tallies accuracy by points, not by trade count, and the running record is public on the performance page. Recent closed signals are listed on the signals page.
Limitations — what a signal cannot do
Signals are professional opinions about probable price moves, not certainties, and this methodology does not eliminate risk — it manages it. Individual results differ with spreads, execution timing and position sizing, and past performance does not guarantee future outcomes. Signals are general analysis, not personal financial advice under Australian law or anywhere else; if you are unsure whether leveraged trading suits your circumstances, consult an independent licensed financial adviser and read our risk disclosure.